Paper 2026/03 · Hamish Paton · Public finances · 12 Sep 2026 · 9 pages
What the gilt move does to the Budget: a pre-registered nowcast of the OBR's headroom number for 28 October 2026
The Chancellor's headroom was a £23.6bn surplus in March. Gilt yields have since risen by about two thirds of a point and the sell side puts the pre-measures number at £11.6bn to £15bn, all of it attributed to debt interest. This estimate is £14.6bn with an 80 per cent interval of about −£4bn to +£34bn, built from 33 OBR forecasts, fixed on data to 10 September and scored against the OBR on 28 October. The route differs from the sell side's, and the route is the finding.
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